HIRI Predicts Overall Home Improvement Product Sales to Continue Growth into 2025
The Home Improvement Research Institute has forecasted the total U.S. building products market to continue building on exponential growth seen in 2020 and 2021. The total market will grow by an additional 2.9 percent from 2023 through 2025, with the consumer market growing by 2.3 percent and the professional market growing by 4.6 percent. This research was conducted in partnership with IHS Markit and released to HIRI members at the end of Q3 in the biannual Home Improvement Products Market Forecast.
“The home improvement industry had explosive growth during the coronavirus pandemic due primarily to DIY projects, but that may now be driven by pros,” says Matthew Craig, HIRI research director. “We are glad to now provide the home and building industry some insight into what they can expect as we continue to navigate a post-pandemic world.”
In the short term, the forecast predicts the total building products market to grow by 13 percent in 2021, with the consumer market growing by 10.8 percent and the professional market growing by 18.2 percent. In 2022, the total building products market is forecasted to grow by an additional 2.3 percent, with the consumer market growing by 0.2 percent and the professional market growing by 7.1 percent.
These findings indicate a curtailment of DIY growth as an overall share of home improvement product sales in 2022, as many homeowners completed planned projects throughout this year and the last. However, growth will continue further in the professional products market as COVID-19 restrictions ease and projects once on hold resume. This means demand for certain products will continue to increase in areas where contractor-led projects are high.
“The strong home improvement outlook provided by pandemic behavior has been given new life by this year’s improved employment gains, increased access to vaccinations and additional stimulus measures. All have boosted consumer confidence and the housing market in particular,” says Scott Hazelton, IHS Markit managing director. “While the boom cannot last forever, a continuing strong economy suggests spending by contractors will actually improve year-over-year as households feel more comfortable with contractors in their home.”
HIRI’s Home Improvement Products Market Forecast further breaks down this growth by segmented merchandise line and location.
Top growing merchandise lines for professionals
Compound annual growth rate for the professional market between 2021-2025:
- Siding and exterior trim: 11 percent
- Gypsum & specialty boards: 9.5 percent
- Dimensional lumber & boards: 8.4 percent
- Roofing & supplies: 8.2 percent
- Doors & molding: 8 percent
- Kitchen & bath cabinets: 7.9 percent
- Major household appliances: 7.9 percent
Fastest growing professional markets
Compound annual growth rate in home improvement spending by state between 2021-2025:
- Oklahoma: 8.9 percent
- California: 8.7 percent
- New Mexico: 8.6 percent
- Nevada: 8.5 percent
- Texas: 8.5 percent
- Massachusetts: 8.4 percent
- Louisiana: 8.3 percent
- Kentucky: 8.3 percent
- South Carolina: 8.3 percent
- Georgia: 8.3 percent
Average annual growth rates in home improvement spending by region between 2022-2025:
- West South Central: 6.2 percent
- Pacific: 6.0 percent
- New England: 5.5 percent
- South Atlantic: 5.5 percent
- Mountain: 4.9 percent
- East North Central: 4.8 percent
- West North Central: 4.5 percent
- Middle Atlantic: 4.4 percent
- East South Central: 4.1 percent
