Thirsty Thursday: Optimism strong for residential market

Chris Beard, director of building products research at John Burns Research and Consulting provided insights on the residential window and door manufacturing market as a guest on the National Glass Association’s most recent Thirsty Thursday webinar. His comprehensive look at the market emphasized improving circumstances for manufacturers and home builders. “We’re seeing a sigh of relief; companies are able to catch up with backlogs, and finally do some strategic planning,” he says.

Beard’s data on the residential market is primarily compiled from the Window & Door Industry Survey, collected in conjunction with Window + Door, directly from industry companies. Help improve industry data by participating in the survey. Company anonymity will be fully protected.

Watch the full webinar

1. Federal rate cuts are happening, and later than planned

The Federal Reserve is still planning for three rate cuts this year, says Beard, but these will be happening later in 2024 rather than sooner. The market had been expecting the cuts sooner, even in March, but based on the Fed's March 20 announcement they will be delayed; Beard says the decision "will have positive impact on housing and the overall economy."

2. Election year 2024 will be challenging, but consumers not as worried

Beard recognized the concerns that usually arise during a presidential year election, but said that this may not be as much of a concern this year. “The traditional 4-6 month cycle [preceding the election] is over, and now the election cycle never really ends,” says Beard. As a result, consumers are more “immune” to the cycle.

3. Near-term increase in remodeling likely (and work-from-home is here to stay)

There are several factors pushing an expansion of the remodeling market, said Beard. One is the number of homes that have aged into their “prime remodeling years.” Another is the likelihood that work-from-home is likely here to stay; Beard says that the rate of remote workers has stabilized at around 30% of the workforce.

That means people are more likely to be investing in their homes. It also means that factors such as design aesthetics are becoming more a driver of the market, whereas energy-efficiency is considered “table stakes,” meaning high-performance is simply expected by consumers.

4. Concerns about IG lead times and potential shipping issues

A quarter of companies that responded to the Window & Door Industry Survey reported extended lead times for insulating glass units. Beard also warned viewers about potential cost and lead time surges due to attacks in the Suez Canal. “We’re starting to see issues around container availability and raw material coming from Asia,” he says. “[These issues are] driving up cargo shipping rates and affecting container availability.”

Watch the video to find further takeaways on

• Surprising growth in 4Q23
• Likely price increases from manufacturers this year
• Companies reactions to the impact of the Inflation Reduction Act
• Watch the video now (plus, find related resources) >