A Look at 2025: Cautious Optimism

This year has been one of change within the industry, from mergers and acquisitions to shifting focus toward matters like PFAS and other regulations. It is difficult to predict the future, but there are signs of what could be to come, thanks to economic projections and market information data. Let’s review the state of the economy so far in 2024 and take a look forward at the industry’s future in 2025. 

The U.S. Economy Today 

Overall, the state of the economy is positive. Jobs are being added consistently each month in the U.S., and inflation is down. In the summer of 2022, inflation was 9 percent while it was 3.3 percent this summer.  

While future uncertainty is concerning, it is worth remembering where we were four years ago in the thick of the pandemic. U.S. economic recovery following COVID is the envy of Europe as well as the rest of the globe. As of July 2024, the U.S. has had the largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product of just under 29 trillion U.S. dollars. China had the second largest, at around 18.5 trillion U.S. dollars. According to Statista, recent adjustments in the list have seen Germany's economy overtake Japan's to become the third largest in the world in 2023. 

What We Could See in 2025 

Many forecasters project that GDP growth may rise to 2-2.4 percent in 2025, spurred on by anticipated lower interest rates and inflation. Others caution, though, that if rate cuts are delayed, the shrinking effect of recent-year rate hikes on GDP growth may well be realized in 2025. 

Fenestration Forecast for 2025 

Each spring, FGIA releases a market information report called the U.S. Industry Statistical Review and Forecast. But in even years, including 2024, FGIA releases the full version of our U.S. Industry Market Studies, offering even more data and insights into the coming months and years. Our May 2024 report forecasted that the overall new housing market is expected to increase slightly in both 2024 and 2025. The demand for residential prime windows is forecast to see growth of 4 percent and 2 percent in 2024 and 2025 respectively. New construction demand for entry doors is also expected to see growth in those years while the patio door market is expected to decline by 1 percent in 2024. 

Although the only thing truly clear at this point is that no one has a crystal ball to predict the future of the U.S. economy, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. However, we should be prepared for a possible mild downturn if the effects of expected rate changes are slow to trickle down.  

The full version of the FGIA 2024 U.S. Industry Market Studies can be purchased in the FGIA Online Store.